COVID-19: Trends we're watching in the week ahead
Key Takeaways
Can physicians recall a more troubled, strange Doctor’s Day? Many might not have even realized that last Monday was the annual celebration of physicians as they hustled to respond to mounting numbers of COVID-19 cases. As we look to the week ahead, doctors are facing what President Trump is calling the “toughest week” with “a lot of death,” states are confronting supply issues, and the nation contends with a crippled economy.
What you missed from the weekend
COVID-19 deaths are being undercounted, according to a New York Times report.
The Surgeon General, Vice Admiral Jerome Adams, called the week ahead a “Pearl Harbor moment” and a “9/11 moment.”
Trump told the nation that “this will probably be the toughest week,” and, “there will be a lot of death.” He’s also weighing a relaxation of social distancing for Easter services.
In contrast, Dr. Deborah Birx, coordinator of the white house coronavirus task force urges the public to be more vigilant now than in the past few weeks. She said, “This is the moment to not be going to the grocery store, not going to the pharmacy, but doing everything you can to keep your family and your friends safe.”
The CDC has begun testing for undetected coronavirus cases. This critical development will give researchers a more accurate understanding of how widespread the virus is. Prior tests only detected active cases of the virus. The new test will reveal who had the virus and recovered — even those who might not have developed symptoms.
Trump touted hydroxychloroquine as a COVID-19 treatment, despite Dr. Anthony Fauci’s warning that supporting evidence for the drug is anecdotal. The FDA hasn’t approved a coronavirus indication.
The CDC says Americans should wear masks out in public. Trump says he won’t do it.
Looking ahead
Taking an analytical look at the weekend’s news, here are the trends we’re watching for the week ahead:
The numbers
Is the coronavirus death toll accurate? According to a New York Times report, no. Various factors are to blame, including inconsistencies in record keeping, bureaucratic differences between states and counties, as well as access to reliable COVID-19 testing.
This revelation calls into question the scope of the pandemic in retrospect and looking ahead. Just how long was it circulating in the U.S. prior to the issuance of stay-home orders? How might this have driven the silent-spreader trend, pushing the peak of the pandemic further into the future?
You might think that uncertainty over the numbers, and the new warnings from Trump and Birx, might make American blood run cold. And so far, it appears you would be wrong.
Despite the chilling official death toll projections of 140,000-200,000, many Americans continue to act foolishly, distorting the intention behind social distancing, or worse, ignoring it.
Last week, crowds gathered in New York to watch the USNS Comfort dock. Meanwhile down South, Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia said he only just learned of the asymptomatic spread of the virus. The facts are that the CDC announced this in February and research supported it in January. And finally, governors in 9 states haven’t issued stay-at-home orders.
Complicating the issue is the economic outlook. A record number of Americans are now unemployed. Those who retain jobs may face the dilemma of working during the pandemic, or staying home without pay.
Some important questions to consider:
How many weeks of isolation (in some cases, without income) will the average American tolerate, especially if the number of cases continues to rise, despite social distancing?
At what point will people begin to say to themselves, distancing isn’t working, I’m taking the risk and returning to work?
How many Americans might be so-called silent spreaders who are unwittingly infecting others?
Will relaxed social distancing for Easter Sunday fan the pandemic flames?
The Takeaway: Physicians, elected officials, and health policy makers need to continue to beat the social distancing drum, using plain language that average Americans can understand, so that they take the situation more seriously. You go out needlessly, and people will die. The doctors, nurses, and other healthcare providers who would otherwise care for you, will die.