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A pharmacodynamic markov mixed-effects model for determining the effect of exposure to certolizumab pegol on the ACR20 score in patients with rheumatoid arthritis
Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics, 07/24/09
Lacroix BD et al. – Study presents the development of a mixed-effects Markov model to describe the probability of ACR20 response as a function of certolizumab pegol exposure and disease- and subject-related factors from 5 clinical trials and the application of this model in supporting decision making with respect to the proposed dosing regimen in adults with rheumatoid arthritis (RA).
Methods- Main objectives of this study were to:
- Develop an exposure-response model of ACR20 in subjects receiving treatment with certolizumab pegol, and
- Predict clinical outcomes following various treatment schedules
- At each visit, subjects were classified as being ACR20 responders or ACR20 nonresponders or as having dropped out
- A Markov mixed-effects model was developed to investigate the effects of the drug on the transitions between the 3 defined states
- Increasing certolizumab pegol exposure predicted:
- An increasing probability of becoming a responder and remaining a responder,
- As well as a reduced probability of dropping out of treatment
- Data from simulations of the ACR20 response rate support the use of dosing regimens of:
- 400 mg at wks 0, 2, and 4 followed by 200 mg every 2 wks, or
- An alternative maintenance regimen of 400 mg every 4 wks
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