Proposal for a recovery prediction method for patients affected by acute mediastinitis Full Text
World Journal of Emergency Surgery, 05/16/2012
Jablonski S et al. – The proposed prediction method seems a useful emergency signal during acute mediastinitis control in affected patients.Methods
- The study comprised 44 consecutive cases of acute mediastinitis.
- General anamnesis and biochemical data were included.
- Factor analysis was used to extract the risk characteristic for the patients.
- The most valuable results were obtained for 8 parameters which were selected for further statistical analysis (all collected during few hours after admission).
- Three factors reached Eigenvalue >1.
- Clinical explanations of these combined statistical factors are: Factor1 - proteinic status (serum total protein, albumin, and hemoglobin level), Factor2 - inflammatory status (white blood cells, CRP, procalcitonin), and Factor3 - general risk (age, number of coexisting diseases).
- Threshold values of prediction factors were estimated by means of statistical analysis (factor analysis, Statgraphics Centurion XVI).
- The final prediction result for the patients is constructed as simultaneous evaluation of all factor scores.
- High probability of death should be predicted if factor 1 value decreases with simultaneous increase of factors 2 and 3.
- The diagnostic power of the proposed method was revealed to be high [sensitivity=90%, specificity=64%], for Factor1 [SNC=87%, SPC=79%]; for Factor2 [SNC=87%, SPC=50%] and for Factor3 [SNC=73%, SPC=71%].