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Prediction of conversion from clinically isolated syndrome to clinically definite multiple sclerosis according to baseline MRI findings: Comparison of revised McDonald criteria and Swantons modified criteria
Journal of Neurology, Neurosurgery, and Psychiatry , 07/10/09

Lo CP et al. – Swanton's modified criteria are more sensitive and accurate (but not significantly) than revised McDonald criteria; however, Swanton's criteria are simpler to use and have equally high specificity and positive predictive value (PPV).

• Study to compare ability of 2 sets of criteria (revised McDonald MRI criteria vs Swanton's modified criteria) to predict conversion from clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS) from baseline MRI findings
• Assessment of 64 pts presenting with CIS suggestive of multiple sclerosis recruited from 2001-2006 and followed up for &g;2 yrs
• Retrospective evaluation of baseline brain and spinal cord MRI studies
• Pts who developed CDMS during follow-up treated as positive cases
• Calculation of sensitivity, specificity, PPV, negative predictive value (NPV), and accuracy of the 2 MRI dissemination-in-space criteria

• Conversion to CDMS by 30 pts (46.9%)
• Sensitivity specificity, PPV, NPV, and accuracy of revised McDonald criteria (%): 53, 100, 100, 71, and 78, respectively
• Sensitivity specificity, PPV, NPV, and accuracy of Swanton's modified criteria (%): 60, 100, 100, 74, and 81

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