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Overview of Risk Prediction Models in Cardiovascular Disease Research
Annals of Epidemiology , 09/11/09

Cui J – The aim of this article is to overview various risk prediction models for cardiovascular diseases, to describe the receiver operating characteristic curve method and discuss some new assessment methods proposed recently. Some of the methods were illustrated with figures from a cardiovascular disease study in Australia.

Exclusive Author Commentary
Jisheng Cui, 09/13/09

Many risk prediction models have been developed for cardiovascular diseases during the past three decades. However, there has not been consistent agreement regarding how to appropriately assess a risk prediction model, especially when new markers are added to an established risk prediction model. Researchers often use the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) to assess the discriminatory ability of a risk prediction model. Recent studies suggest that this method has serious limitations to evaluate the usefulness of a new marker in clinical and epidemiological studies.

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