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Reliable data on 5- and 10-year survival provide accurate estimates of 15-year survival in estrogen receptor-positive early-stage breast cancer
Breast Cancer Research and Treatment, 10/13/09

Heroldet CI et al. – Utilizing Early Breast Cancer Trialists’ Collaborative Group (EBCTCG) data, a Markov model was generated to compare empirical results with those modeled beyond the empirical result time horizon in estrogen receptor (ER)-positive early-stage breast cancer (ESBC).Reliable early survival data may be used to generate models that accurately estimate 15-year survival in ER-positive ESBC. Whether early survival data can be employed over the lifetime horizon remains to be demonstrated.

• Markov model generated to compare empirical results with those modeled beyond empirical result time horizon in estrogen receptor (ER)-positive early-stage breast cancer (ESBC)

• Modeling life expectancy differences ranged from an underestimate of ?7.93% to an overestimate of 12.64%, over the span of 15 years
• Corresponded to loss of 18 days or gain of 40 days of life

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