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Predicting risk of nonmelanoma skin cancer and premalignant skin lesions in renal transplant recipients
Transplantation, 07/22/09
Urwin HR et al. - In a study to develop a predictive index (PI) that could be used in targeted screening, a simple PI was developed to enable deployment of targeted nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC) surveillance strategies.
Methods- Data on pt demographics, ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure, and other clinical parameters were collected on 398 adult recipients.
- Structured interview, skin examination, biopsy of lesions, and review of medical/pathologic records were performed.
- Time to presentation with the first NMSC was assessed using Cox's regression models and Kaplan-Meier estimates used to assess detection of NMSC during screening.
- Stepwise selection identified age, outdoor UVR exposure, living in a hot climate, pretransplant NMSC, childhood sunburning, and skin type as predictors.
- The PI generated was used to allocate pts into 3 screening groups (6 mos, 2 yrs, and 5 yrs).
- Survival curves of these groups were significantly different.
- Jack-knife validation correctly allocated all pts into the appropriate group.
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