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Estimation of absolute risk for prostate cancer using genetic markers and family history
The Prostate, 07/02/09

Xu J et al. - In a study to assess whether multiple DNA sequence variants in the form of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are associated with prostate cancer (PCa) risk, it was reported that this risk prediction model may be used to identify men at considerably elevated PCa risk who may be selected for chemoprevention.

Methods

Absolute risk for PCa among men with various numbers of inherited risk alleles and family history of PCa was estimated in a population-based case-control study (2893 cases and 1781 controls) and a nested case-control study in the US (1172 cases and 1157 controls).

Results

Increased number of risk alleles and positive family history were independently associated with PCa risk.
Considering men with 11 risk alleles (mode) and negative family history as having baseline risk, men who had ≥14 risk alleles and positive family history had an odds ratio (OR) of 4.92 in the Swedish study.
These associations were confirmed in the US population.
Once a man's SNP genotypes and family history are known, his absolute risk for PCa can be readily calculated and easily interpreted.
For example, 55-year-old men with a family history and ≥14 risk alleles have a 52% and 41% risk of being diagnosed with PCa in the next 20 yrs in the Swedish and US populations, respectively.
In comparison, without knowledge of genotype and family history, these men had an average population absolute risk of 13%.

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