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Modelling mitigation strategies for pandemic (H1N1) 2009
Canadian Medical Association Journal, 11/10/09

Gojovic MZ et al. – Delays in vaccination of 30 days or more reduced the effectiveness of vaccination in lowering the attack rate. However, pre–existing immunity in 15% or more of the population kept the attack rates low, even if the whole population was not vaccinated or vaccination was delayed. School closure was effective in reducing the attack rate, especially if applied early in the outbreak, but this is not necessary if vaccine is available early or if pre–existing immunity is strong. Early action, especially rapid vaccine deployment, is disproportionately effective in reducing the attack rate. This finding is particularly important given the early appearance of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in many schools in September 2009.