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Kahn HS et al. - Using data from a large prospective study, these investigators derived and tested scoring systems for predicting development of diabetes within 10 years among middle-age adults. A basic system, which included such items as waist circumference, parental diabetes, hypertension, short stature, and black race, identified groups with varying risk for diabetes. An enhanced system that included such blood tests as fasting glucose, lipids, and uric acid better identified those at highest risk. The risk scoring systems had no question regarding previous gestational diabetes, and knowledge of parental diabetes may be uncertain. The analyzed cohort was restricted by age and race; the systems may be less effective in other samples. Basic information identified adults at high risk for diabetes. Additional data from fasting blood tests better identified those at extreme risk. These scoring systems need to be validated in different populations and their utility evaluated before widespread application.

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