Keough-Ryan TM et al. - Absolute rates of progression to ESRD per 100-patient years were 0.08 at stages 1 and 2, 0.17 at stage 3 and 4.27 at stage 4. Age, diabetes, hypertension and congestive heart failure also predicted ESRD. We found that patients with stage 4 disease are at high risk of ESRD after a cardiac admission while those at stage 3 are far more likely to die than to develop ESRD.