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The pharmaceutical industry spends a lot of time and money trying to predict how its products will be embraced. Yet given the complex nature of the marketplace, forecasts based on self-stated interest are often wrong. Take Exubera. Heralded worldwide as a diabetes savior, it never gained market traction and fell flat just two years post-launch. By contrast, Lipitor was expected to do reasonably well—but nobody knew it would become the biggest-selling drug of all time.

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